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Hurricanes: scary scenarios for NJ

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The maximum storm surge in the Bayshore area during a hypothetical Category 3 Hurricane

My photo of the map shows near-worst case storm surge flooding in the Bayshore area during a hypothetical Category 3 hurricane (Source: National Hurricane Center Storm Surge Unit)

These are scary scenarios for New Jersey coastal areas.

The National Hurricane Center has created "a seamless national map of near worst case storm surge flooding (inundation) scenarios" for various hurricanes at high tide.

And it looks like flooding during a Category 3 (major) hurricane - or even a weaker storm - would go farther inland in the Bayshore area than during superstorm Sandy.

In fact, the water level would be more than 9 feet above ground in much of the area during a Category 3 storm, according to the interactive map.

Related: Warning: Storm surge, flooding risks to rise

The map also shows extreme flooding in low-lying areas of Ocean County, including Little Egg Harbor and Stafford.

Related: The $100 billion hurricane?

With the map, anyone living in hurricane-prone coastal areas along the East and Gulf coasts can evaluate their unique risk to storm surge. And the map clearly shows that storm surge is not just a beachfront problem. The storm surge risk stretches several miles inland in some areas, according to the map.

People who live in vulnerable areas should find out if they live in a hurricane storm surge evacuation zone as determined by their local emergency management agency, according to the map, which quotes Rick Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center.

“If you do live in an evacuation zone, decide today where you will go and how you will get there, if and when you’re instructed by emergency managers to evacuate," Knabb says.

The New Jersey Office of Emergency Management website has lots of information on preparing for hurricanes, including storm surge maps and evacuation routes.

Related: Superstorm Sandy ranks high in disaster report

Storm surge is the abnormal rise of water generated by a storm above predicted astronomical tides. Storm surge flooding depends on numerous factors, such as the track, intensity, size and forward speed of a hurricane and coastline characteristics where the storm comes ashore or passes nearby, according to the hurricane center map.

The interactive national map uses the National Weather Service SLOSH model maximum of maximums (MOMs) product. SLOSH stands for Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes.

SLOSH products do not include Category 5 storms north of the North Carolina-Virginia border. MOMs represent the worst-case scenario for a storm category and initial water level under ideal storm conditions, according to the map.

Related: A storm worse than superstorm Sandy?

Thanks go to Brian Zachry, Ph.D., storm surge specialist at the National Hurricane Center, for letting me know about the map.

The red shows storm surge flooding more than 9 feet above ground level during a hypothetical Category 3 hurricane (Source: National Hurricane Center)

The red (in my photo of the map) shows storm surge flooding more than 9 feet above ground level during a hypothetical Category 3 hurricane (Source: National Hurricane Center Storm Surge Unit)

 

 

 


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